http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/34188 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 05:49:54 GMT 2026-10-30T05:49:54Z http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/200473 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 384 There is a growing literature focusing on measurement error in self-reported data. This paper studies the case of women’s agency, a key outcome in economic development, and introduces a simple and cost-effective corrective measure to enhance the reliability of data collection around sensitive topics. The study draws from a survey experiment in rural Guatemala where 1,183 women received the same questions about their agency as part of a phone survey, but the privacy of their responses was varied. Women in the control group answered verbally. The first treatment group used code words to conceal answers from potential bystanders. The second treatment arm used the phone keypad to conceal answers from bystanders and the enumerator alike. The paper finds that women answering under higher levels of privacy report lower levels of agency, by 0.19 standard deviations on an aggregate index. The effects of the two privacy treatments cannot be statistically distinguished. The effect is concentrated among women with higher social standing, and qualitative interviews indicate that agency is socially valued in this setting. Both patterns point to social desirability bias as the most likely explanation for why reported agency responds to privacy. Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/200473 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z There is a growing literature focusing on measurement error in self-reported data. This paper studies the case of women’s agency, a key outcome in economic development, and introduces a simple and cost-effective corrective measure to enhance the reliability of data collection around sensitive topics. The study draws from a survey experiment in rural Guatemala where 1,183 women received the same questions about their agency as part of a phone survey, but the privacy of their responses was varied. Women in the control group answered verbally. The first treatment group used code words to conceal answers from potential bystanders. The second treatment arm used the phone keypad to conceal answers from bystanders and the enumerator alike. The paper finds that women answering under higher levels of privacy report lower levels of agency, by 0.19 standard deviations on an aggregate index. The effects of the two privacy treatments cannot be statistically distinguished. The effect is concentrated among women with higher social standing, and qualitative interviews indicate that agency is socially valued in this setting. Both patterns point to social desirability bias as the most likely explanation for why reported agency responds to privacy. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/200472 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 383 This paper examines the distributional effects of bus transport subsidies in Argentina, a country with a longstanding system of fare support. A key feature of this subsidy scheme is the coexistence of a universal flat subsidy for all users and targeted mechanisms aimed at protecting lower-income groups, alongside integrated fare discounts for multistage trips. Using household survey data, mobility microdata, and administrative records, we estimate the distributional incidence of these subsidies. We find that while subsidies are progressive in relative terms, they exhibit weak targeting in absolute terms, with a substantial share of benefits accruing to middle- and high-income users. This pattern is largely driven by the dominance of the universal subsidy over more targeted instruments. The paper highlights the equity challenges inherent in mixed subsidy structures and offers policy lessons for countries seeking to redesign fare systems, improve targeting, or rationalize public transport subsidies under fiscal constraints. Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/200472 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z This paper examines the distributional effects of bus transport subsidies in Argentina, a country with a longstanding system of fare support. A key feature of this subsidy scheme is the coexistence of a universal flat subsidy for all users and targeted mechanisms aimed at protecting lower-income groups, alongside integrated fare discounts for multistage trips. Using household survey data, mobility microdata, and administrative records, we estimate the distributional incidence of these subsidies. We find that while subsidies are progressive in relative terms, they exhibit weak targeting in absolute terms, with a substantial share of benefits accruing to middle- and high-income users. This pattern is largely driven by the dominance of the universal subsidy over more targeted instruments. The paper highlights the equity challenges inherent in mixed subsidy structures and offers policy lessons for countries seeking to redesign fare systems, improve targeting, or rationalize public transport subsidies under fiscal constraints. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/199551 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 382 This paper examines the local effects of the 2018–19 U.S. China trade disruptions on Mexico. Combining detailed municipal-level customs data with U.S. tariff schedules, it estimates that municipalities with greater export concentration in products targeted by U.S. tariffs on China (hereafter, tariff exposure) experienced significantly larger nearshoring dividends. An increase of 1 percent in tariff exposure led to a 4.3 percent increase in municipality-level exports to the United States, with gains concentrated in northern and south-central states. These export gains translated into broad labor market improvements: total labor income rose by 5.6 percent for each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure, driven by job creation rather than wage growth as average earnings remained unchanged. The effects were heterogeneous across skill levels, with the largest employment rate gains among semi-skilled workers. Beyond job quantity, the shock improved job quality: each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure reduced labor informality by 0.25 percentage points, with newly created jobs disproportionately being formal. Effects were driven primarily by manufacturing but extended to services through local spillovers. The findings indicate that trade policy changes between major economies can significantly reshape the spatial distribution of economic activity and the quantity and quality of jobs in third-party countries. Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/199551 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z This paper examines the local effects of the 2018–19 U.S. China trade disruptions on Mexico. Combining detailed municipal-level customs data with U.S. tariff schedules, it estimates that municipalities with greater export concentration in products targeted by U.S. tariffs on China (hereafter, tariff exposure) experienced significantly larger nearshoring dividends. An increase of 1 percent in tariff exposure led to a 4.3 percent increase in municipality-level exports to the United States, with gains concentrated in northern and south-central states. These export gains translated into broad labor market improvements: total labor income rose by 5.6 percent for each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure, driven by job creation rather than wage growth as average earnings remained unchanged. The effects were heterogeneous across skill levels, with the largest employment rate gains among semi-skilled workers. Beyond job quantity, the shock improved job quality: each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure reduced labor informality by 0.25 percentage points, with newly created jobs disproportionately being formal. Effects were driven primarily by manufacturing but extended to services through local spillovers. The findings indicate that trade policy changes between major economies can significantly reshape the spatial distribution of economic activity and the quantity and quality of jobs in third-party countries. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/199549 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 381 This paper estimates the causal impact of first-time motherhood on the onset of physical or sexual intimate partner violence (IPV). We use retrospective data from Peru’s Demographic and Health Surveys (2004–2019), and conduct a stacked difference-indifferences estimation comparing first-time mothers to observationally similarwomen who conceive three years later, matching on pre-conception characteristics. Unlike previous studies based on administrative data, we address the key empirical challenge of constructing a credible counterfactual by exploiting detailed survey data on pre-conception relationship characteristics and incorporating these characteristics into the matching procedure. We find that motherhood increases the likelihood of IPV onset by 4.3 percentage points (a 29% increase) within two years after conception. Importantly, we find that failing to account for pre-conception relationship characteristics when constructing the comparison group leads to substantial upward bias, highlighting their importance for credibly identifying the causal effect of motherhood on IPV. Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/199549 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z This paper estimates the causal impact of first-time motherhood on the onset of physical or sexual intimate partner violence (IPV). We use retrospective data from Peru’s Demographic and Health Surveys (2004–2019), and conduct a stacked difference-indifferences estimation comparing first-time mothers to observationally similarwomen who conceive three years later, matching on pre-conception characteristics. Unlike previous studies based on administrative data, we address the key empirical challenge of constructing a credible counterfactual by exploiting detailed survey data on pre-conception relationship characteristics and incorporating these characteristics into the matching procedure. We find that motherhood increases the likelihood of IPV onset by 4.3 percentage points (a 29% increase) within two years after conception. Importantly, we find that failing to account for pre-conception relationship characteristics when constructing the comparison group leads to substantial upward bias, highlighting their importance for credibly identifying the causal effect of motherhood on IPV. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/198272 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 380; https://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/196204 Este trabajo analiza la evolución de las brechas salariales entre la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (CABA) y el resto de los aglomerados urbanos de Argentina tras la expansión del trabajo remoto durante el shock del COVID-19, evaluando si el diferencial se concentró en ocupaciones con mayor potencial de teletrabajo. Utilizando microdatos de la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) y una estrategia de identificación basada en la triangulación de métodos —Control Sintético, Diferencias en Diferencias Sintéticas (SDID) y modelos de Triple Diferencia (DDD)—, se evalúa si la infraestructura digital y la estructura ocupacional de la capital actuaron como un mecanismo diferencial de protección de ingresos. Los resultados muestran que los trabajadores en ocupaciones con alto potencial de teletrabajo en CABA experimentaron una prima salarial relativa de aproximadamente 4,9% en comparación con sus contrapartes en otras regiones. Estos hallazgos sugieren que la capacidad de adaptación al trabajo remoto, en interacción con características estructurales locales, contribuyó a amplificar brechas territoriales preexistentes, consolidando una nueva dimensión de desigualdad espacial en el mercado laboral argentino. En ''Documentos relacionados"' se encuentra el enlace a la tesis del autor. Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/198272 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z Este trabajo analiza la evolución de las brechas salariales entre la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (CABA) y el resto de los aglomerados urbanos de Argentina tras la expansión del trabajo remoto durante el shock del COVID-19, evaluando si el diferencial se concentró en ocupaciones con mayor potencial de teletrabajo. Utilizando microdatos de la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) y una estrategia de identificación basada en la triangulación de métodos —Control Sintético, Diferencias en Diferencias Sintéticas (SDID) y modelos de Triple Diferencia (DDD)—, se evalúa si la infraestructura digital y la estructura ocupacional de la capital actuaron como un mecanismo diferencial de protección de ingresos. Los resultados muestran que los trabajadores en ocupaciones con alto potencial de teletrabajo en CABA experimentaron una prima salarial relativa de aproximadamente 4,9% en comparación con sus contrapartes en otras regiones. Estos hallazgos sugieren que la capacidad de adaptación al trabajo remoto, en interacción con características estructurales locales, contribuyó a amplificar brechas territoriales preexistentes, consolidando una nueva dimensión de desigualdad espacial en el mercado laboral argentino. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/197611 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 379 Female labor force participation (LFP) and fertility have evolved jointly across Latin America, with participation rising as fertility declined over the last two decades. This paper studies the extent to which changes in fertility can account for increases in women’s labor supply in the five largest economies in the region as well as in the US. Defining three groups based solely on the presence of children under age 6, under age 13, and no children under age 13, we find that in all countries changes in labor supply within groups overwhelmingly dominate the compositional shifts induced by declining fertility. When we further disaggregate women into groups by their education in addition to the age of their children, the changing composition of the population becomes more important and the increase in LFP is mostly driven by more educated women without children under age 13, reflecting increases in both their participation and population share. Sat, 01 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/197611 2026-08-01T00:00:00Z Female labor force participation (LFP) and fertility have evolved jointly across Latin America, with participation rising as fertility declined over the last two decades. This paper studies the extent to which changes in fertility can account for increases in women’s labor supply in the five largest economies in the region as well as in the US. Defining three groups based solely on the presence of children under age 6, under age 13, and no children under age 13, we find that in all countries changes in labor supply within groups overwhelmingly dominate the compositional shifts induced by declining fertility. When we further disaggregate women into groups by their education in addition to the age of their children, the changing composition of the population becomes more important and the increase in LFP is mostly driven by more educated women without children under age 13, reflecting increases in both their participation and population share. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/197610 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 378 This paper provides evidence on the impact of social media exposure on anxiety among first-year university students in Argentina. While concerns about the mental health effects of social media are widespread, obtaining causal evidence is challenging. We conducted a randomized survey experiment in which participants are exposed to brief, realistic social media scenarios, such as receiving no feedback on a post or viewing idealized content, while a placebo group is assigned to neutral stimuli. Immediately after exposure, we measure state anxiety using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI). We find that exposure to these hypothetical scenarios increases anxiety by 0.09 standard deviations relative to the placebo group, with larger effects among male participants. These findings highlight that even short, simulated digital experiences can have meaningful psychological effects, with important implications for the design of policies and interventions targeting youth well- being. Sat, 01 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/197610 2026-08-01T00:00:00Z This paper provides evidence on the impact of social media exposure on anxiety among first-year university students in Argentina. While concerns about the mental health effects of social media are widespread, obtaining causal evidence is challenging. We conducted a randomized survey experiment in which participants are exposed to brief, realistic social media scenarios, such as receiving no feedback on a post or viewing idealized content, while a placebo group is assigned to neutral stimuli. Immediately after exposure, we measure state anxiety using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI). We find that exposure to these hypothetical scenarios increases anxiety by 0.09 standard deviations relative to the placebo group, with larger effects among male participants. These findings highlight that even short, simulated digital experiences can have meaningful psychological effects, with important implications for the design of policies and interventions targeting youth well- being. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/196968 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 377 This paper estimates the share of green employment in seven South Asian countries using an O*NET-based definition and finds that, on average, 24 percent of jobs in the region are currently green. The paper then assesses the potential for non-green workers to transition into green occupations. Among all non-green workers, 57 percent could transition to green jobs with limited reskilling, 16 percent with moderate upskilling, and 27 percent with full skills reconversion. These results suggest three policy priorities—promoting on-the-job training, strengthening firm-based and public–private training systems, and adopting a dual strategy that invests in reskilling and upskilling today’s workforce while simultaneously advancing forward-looking education reforms that equip future cohorts for new and emerging green occupations. Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/196968 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z This paper estimates the share of green employment in seven South Asian countries using an O*NET-based definition and finds that, on average, 24 percent of jobs in the region are currently green. The paper then assesses the potential for non-green workers to transition into green occupations. Among all non-green workers, 57 percent could transition to green jobs with limited reskilling, 16 percent with moderate upskilling, and 27 percent with full skills reconversion. These results suggest three policy priorities—promoting on-the-job training, strengthening firm-based and public–private training systems, and adopting a dual strategy that invests in reskilling and upskilling today’s workforce while simultaneously advancing forward-looking education reforms that equip future cohorts for new and emerging green occupations. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/196967 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 376 This paper examines the impact of an internship program in Argentina (Pro- grama Primer Paso) on the formal employment trajectories of People with Disabil- ities (PwD). Using administrative data from 2002–2023 and a staggered difference- in-differences design, we estimate that program participation persistently increases formal employment and improves employment stability over time. On average, the probability of being formally employed rises by about 8 percentage points within three years after treatment, with the effect growing over time. The program also in- creases sustained employment—measured as at least six or twelve months of formal work per year—as well as the total number of months in formal jobs. Importantly, about three-quarters of the observed employment gains arise from jobs at firms other than the initial internship host, indicating broader integration into the formal labor market rather than the formalization of pre-existing ties. These results are robust to alternative specifications and pre-trend tests. The effects are larger for individuals residing in the capital city and for those placed in medium- and large-sized firms, while they are smaller for individuals with mental disabilities. No clear differences are found by age or gender. From the perspective of participating firms, we find no evidence of changes in their hiring behavior toward PwD after hosting a PPP intern with a disability. These findings suggest that internship programs can be an effective tool to reduce labor market gaps for people with disabilities in developing countries, with patterns consistent with the alleviation of informational frictions, the raising of expectations about employment prospects, and the acquisition of transferable skills. Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/196967 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z This paper examines the impact of an internship program in Argentina (Pro- grama Primer Paso) on the formal employment trajectories of People with Disabil- ities (PwD). Using administrative data from 2002–2023 and a staggered difference- in-differences design, we estimate that program participation persistently increases formal employment and improves employment stability over time. On average, the probability of being formally employed rises by about 8 percentage points within three years after treatment, with the effect growing over time. The program also in- creases sustained employment—measured as at least six or twelve months of formal work per year—as well as the total number of months in formal jobs. Importantly, about three-quarters of the observed employment gains arise from jobs at firms other than the initial internship host, indicating broader integration into the formal labor market rather than the formalization of pre-existing ties. These results are robust to alternative specifications and pre-trend tests. The effects are larger for individuals residing in the capital city and for those placed in medium- and large-sized firms, while they are smaller for individuals with mental disabilities. No clear differences are found by age or gender. From the perspective of participating firms, we find no evidence of changes in their hiring behavior toward PwD after hosting a PPP intern with a disability. These findings suggest that internship programs can be an effective tool to reduce labor market gaps for people with disabilities in developing countries, with patterns consistent with the alleviation of informational frictions, the raising of expectations about employment prospects, and the acquisition of transferable skills. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/196147 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 375 We evaluate the impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ labor market constraints in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions in Kenya using a clustered randomized controlled trial. We also explore whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control, moderates the impact of soft-skills training. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for the youth. Although we find suggestive evidence that the soft-skills training marginally contributed to preparing the youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes appears negligible. However, the effect of soft-skills training varies across individuals with varying personality traits. Soft-skills training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control, implying important heterogeneity across individuals with varying non-cognitive skills. Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/196147 2026-06-01T00:00:00Z We evaluate the impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ labor market constraints in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions in Kenya using a clustered randomized controlled trial. We also explore whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control, moderates the impact of soft-skills training. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for the youth. Although we find suggestive evidence that the soft-skills training marginally contributed to preparing the youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes appears negligible. However, the effect of soft-skills training varies across individuals with varying personality traits. Soft-skills training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control, implying important heterogeneity across individuals with varying non-cognitive skills. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/195472 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 374 This paper examines the relationship between intergenerational educational mobility and populist attitudes in Latin America, a region characterized by low levels of intergenerational mobility and a long-standing presence of populist leadership. In contexts where social origin strongly predicts individual outcomes, perceptions of unfairness may create fertile ground for populist narratives. Using harmonized microdata from 18 waves of the Latinobarómetro survey covering individuals born between 1940 and 2000, we document a robust negative association between intergenerational mobility and populist attitudes across multiple indicators, including anti-democratic attitudes, support for military governments, anti-immigrant sentiments, and institutional distrust. These results hold when using a relative mobility measure that captures pure positional change net of structural trends, and at the cohort level when exploiting standard mobility measures from the literature. Cohort-level estimates further reveal that the effect of persistence is amplified in high-inequality contexts, suggesting that immobility and contemporaneous inequality act as complements in shaping political discontent. Decomposing inequality into opportunity and effort components, we find evidence suggesting that populist attitudes are mostly driven by inequalities of opportunity. These findings suggest that the persistent emergence of populist leadership in Latin America is linked to the region’s stubbornly low intergenerational mobility and unequal access to opportunities. Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/195472 2026-06-01T00:00:00Z This paper examines the relationship between intergenerational educational mobility and populist attitudes in Latin America, a region characterized by low levels of intergenerational mobility and a long-standing presence of populist leadership. In contexts where social origin strongly predicts individual outcomes, perceptions of unfairness may create fertile ground for populist narratives. Using harmonized microdata from 18 waves of the Latinobarómetro survey covering individuals born between 1940 and 2000, we document a robust negative association between intergenerational mobility and populist attitudes across multiple indicators, including anti-democratic attitudes, support for military governments, anti-immigrant sentiments, and institutional distrust. These results hold when using a relative mobility measure that captures pure positional change net of structural trends, and at the cohort level when exploiting standard mobility measures from the literature. Cohort-level estimates further reveal that the effect of persistence is amplified in high-inequality contexts, suggesting that immobility and contemporaneous inequality act as complements in shaping political discontent. Decomposing inequality into opportunity and effort components, we find evidence suggesting that populist attitudes are mostly driven by inequalities of opportunity. These findings suggest that the persistent emergence of populist leadership in Latin America is linked to the region’s stubbornly low intergenerational mobility and unequal access to opportunities. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/194496 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 373 Se evalúa el impacto de los programas de pago por desempeño (P4P) sobre el mercado laboral de la salud, un aspecto poco explorado frente a la abundante evidencia existente sobre sus efectos sanitarios. El foco está en el sector público de salud de Argentina, en el marco del Plan Nacer/Programa SUMAR, considerando que los recursos humanos en salud son un insumo estratégico para avanzar hacia la cobertura universal. El estudio utiliza una base inédita de indicadores laborales del personal de salud del sector público y privado en las provincias argentinas entre 2003 - 2019, a partir de la cual, por medio de modelos de triple diferencia, se evalúan los efectos del programa sobre ellos. Se encuentra que el programa eleva los salarios relativos por lo que mejora la motivación de los trabajadores (margen intensivo) y sostiene la retención de trabajadores. De esta manera, la mejora en los resultados de salud del programa se deberían a aumentos de productividad más que a la incorporación de nuevos trabajadores. Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/194496 2026-05-01T00:00:00Z Se evalúa el impacto de los programas de pago por desempeño (P4P) sobre el mercado laboral de la salud, un aspecto poco explorado frente a la abundante evidencia existente sobre sus efectos sanitarios. El foco está en el sector público de salud de Argentina, en el marco del Plan Nacer/Programa SUMAR, considerando que los recursos humanos en salud son un insumo estratégico para avanzar hacia la cobertura universal. El estudio utiliza una base inédita de indicadores laborales del personal de salud del sector público y privado en las provincias argentinas entre 2003 - 2019, a partir de la cual, por medio de modelos de triple diferencia, se evalúan los efectos del programa sobre ellos. Se encuentra que el programa eleva los salarios relativos por lo que mejora la motivación de los trabajadores (margen intensivo) y sostiene la retención de trabajadores. De esta manera, la mejora en los resultados de salud del programa se deberían a aumentos de productividad más que a la incorporación de nuevos trabajadores. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/194495 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 372 We study the responses of household electricity consumption to temperature changes, focusing on asymmetries between welfare deciles. Our analysis exploits a unique panel dataset for Peru that links household survey microdata with repeated administrative records on energy use and local temperature. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate how electricity consumption varies with temperature, highlighting the unequal capacity of households across income deciles to adapt to climate change. Based on this evidence, we propose and implement a novel measure of adaptive energy poverty, which captures households’ ability to respond to rising ambient temperatures through increased elec- tricity consumption. Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/194495 2026-05-01T00:00:00Z We study the responses of household electricity consumption to temperature changes, focusing on asymmetries between welfare deciles. Our analysis exploits a unique panel dataset for Peru that links household survey microdata with repeated administrative records on energy use and local temperature. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate how electricity consumption varies with temperature, highlighting the unequal capacity of households across income deciles to adapt to climate change. Based on this evidence, we propose and implement a novel measure of adaptive energy poverty, which captures households’ ability to respond to rising ambient temperatures through increased elec- tricity consumption. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/193038 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 371 This study examines the challenges of analyzing domestic violence (DV) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and seeks to improve measurement through two main contributions. First, we collect and describe traditional DV data sources (household surveys and administrative records) across 19 countries. The analysis reveals substantial gaps in data availability, with infrequent and outdated survey efforts in most countries. Nevertheless, surveys confirm high DV prevalence, with at least one in five women reporting victimization in all countries examined, and highlight pervasive underreporting that limits the reliability of administrative crime data. Second, we examine the properties of a novel, high-frequency indicator based on online search behavior: the Google Domestic Violence Index. Using administrative data from eight LAC countries, we find that the index is strongly correlated with calls to DV helplines but shows weaker association with police reports or emergency calls. The evidence suggests that the index captures early-stage, information-seeking behavior and may provide a real-time signal of latent victimization not reflected in official statistics. Our findings underscore the potential of digital data to complement traditional sources and to support more timely, responsive approaches to tracking DV. Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/193038 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z This study examines the challenges of analyzing domestic violence (DV) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and seeks to improve measurement through two main contributions. First, we collect and describe traditional DV data sources (household surveys and administrative records) across 19 countries. The analysis reveals substantial gaps in data availability, with infrequent and outdated survey efforts in most countries. Nevertheless, surveys confirm high DV prevalence, with at least one in five women reporting victimization in all countries examined, and highlight pervasive underreporting that limits the reliability of administrative crime data. Second, we examine the properties of a novel, high-frequency indicator based on online search behavior: the Google Domestic Violence Index. Using administrative data from eight LAC countries, we find that the index is strongly correlated with calls to DV helplines but shows weaker association with police reports or emergency calls. The evidence suggests that the index captures early-stage, information-seeking behavior and may provide a real-time signal of latent victimization not reflected in official statistics. Our findings underscore the potential of digital data to complement traditional sources and to support more timely, responsive approaches to tracking DV. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/193036 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 370 Este artículo cuantifica en qué grado la medición de la pobreza por ingresos puede verse afectada por aspectos metodológicos que cobran especial relevancia en contextos de alta inflación y de cambios en los precios relativos, tomando como caso de estudio a Argentina (2018-2025). Se analizan tres de esos aspectos: (i) el posible desfasaje temporal entre el período de referencia de los ingresos relevados por la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) y el período utilizado para la valorización de las canastas de pobreza; (ii) la evolución del subreporte de ingresos según fuente, a partir de comparaciones entre la EPH y registros administrativos; y (iii) el impacto de utilizar patrones de consumo más recientes para determinar el valor de la línea de pobreza mediante una reestimación del Coeficiente de Engel con base en la Encuesta Nacional de Gastos de los Hogares (ENGHo) 2017/2018. Los resultados sugieren que las correcciones en estas tres dimensiones tienen efectos cuantitativamente relevantes no solo sobre el nivel, sino también sobre la evolución de la tasa de pobreza. El trabajo propone un marco replicable para realizar un análisis más matizado de la evolución de la pobreza por ingresos en contextos de inflación cambiante. Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/193036 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z Este artículo cuantifica en qué grado la medición de la pobreza por ingresos puede verse afectada por aspectos metodológicos que cobran especial relevancia en contextos de alta inflación y de cambios en los precios relativos, tomando como caso de estudio a Argentina (2018-2025). Se analizan tres de esos aspectos: (i) el posible desfasaje temporal entre el período de referencia de los ingresos relevados por la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) y el período utilizado para la valorización de las canastas de pobreza; (ii) la evolución del subreporte de ingresos según fuente, a partir de comparaciones entre la EPH y registros administrativos; y (iii) el impacto de utilizar patrones de consumo más recientes para determinar el valor de la línea de pobreza mediante una reestimación del Coeficiente de Engel con base en la Encuesta Nacional de Gastos de los Hogares (ENGHo) 2017/2018. Los resultados sugieren que las correcciones en estas tres dimensiones tienen efectos cuantitativamente relevantes no solo sobre el nivel, sino también sobre la evolución de la tasa de pobreza. El trabajo propone un marco replicable para realizar un análisis más matizado de la evolución de la pobreza por ingresos en contextos de inflación cambiante. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/192157 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 369 This paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk. Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/192157 2026-03-01T00:00:00Z This paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/192156 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 368 This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/192156 2026-03-01T00:00:00Z This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/190921 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 367 Este artículo presenta la primera sistematización integral de las mediciones de uso del tiempo realizadas en Argentina, desde la primera en 1998 hasta la más reciente en 2024. Ofrece una guía práctica de consulta para gobiernos, academia, organizaciones de la sociedad civil y otros usuarios de estas estadísticas, al reunir en un único recurso información sobre cobertura, instrumentos de recolección, clasificadores y criterios metodológicos de cada encuesta, facilitando su interpretación, uso y comparabilidad. Pese a sus diferencias, todas muestran importantes brechas de género.; This article presents the first comprehensive systematization of time use measurements carried out in Argentina, from the first in 1998 to the most recent in 2024. It provides a practical reference guide for governments, academia, civil society organizations and other users of these statistics. The article brings together in a single resource information on coverage, data collection instruments, classifiers, and methodological criteria for each survey, facilitating their interpretation, use and comparability. Despite their differences, all show significant gender gaps. Sun, 01 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/190921 2026-02-01T00:00:00Z Este artículo presenta la primera sistematización integral de las mediciones de uso del tiempo realizadas en Argentina, desde la primera en 1998 hasta la más reciente en 2024. Ofrece una guía práctica de consulta para gobiernos, academia, organizaciones de la sociedad civil y otros usuarios de estas estadísticas, al reunir en un único recurso información sobre cobertura, instrumentos de recolección, clasificadores y criterios metodológicos de cada encuesta, facilitando su interpretación, uso y comparabilidad. Pese a sus diferencias, todas muestran importantes brechas de género. This article presents the first comprehensive systematization of time use measurements carried out in Argentina, from the first in 1998 to the most recent in 2024. It provides a practical reference guide for governments, academia, civil society organizations and other users of these statistics. The article brings together in a single resource information on coverage, data collection instruments, classifiers, and methodological criteria for each survey, facilitating their interpretation, use and comparability. Despite their differences, all show significant gender gaps. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/190917 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 366 Este trabajo documenta el grado y la evolución del emparejamiento selectivo (ES) educativo en 21 países de América Latina y el Caribe para cohortes nacidas entre 1915 y 1985, utilizando microdatos censales. Para estudiar tendencias en un contexto de expansión educativa y cambios en las distribuciones marginales por género, se evalúan indicadores de ES existentes y se propone el Indicador Cuantílico Educativo Local (ICEL), definido como la razón entre la probabilidad observada de emparejamiento dentro de un mismo cuantil educativo y la probabilidad esperada bajo independencia estadística. Se presentan dos extensiones: un indicador global que incorpora en la medición la selección hacia la formación de pareja y un indicador geográfico que integra heterogeneidad territorial en capital educativo y patrones de emparejamiento en mercados matrimoniales locales. De acuerdo con los datos de los últimos censos disponibles de cada país, la probabilidad de emparejarse con una persona del mismo quintil educativo es, en promedio, 2.3 veces la que surgiría bajo emparejamiento aleatorio, y presenta una mayor intensidad en los extremos de la distribución (Q1 en torno a 2.5; Q5 en torno a 3). Entre el primer y el último registro por país, el ICEL disminuye en 13 de 21 casos. Simulaciones para México muestran que restricciones etarias y geográficas explican una fracción sustantiva del emparejamiento observado y que, en escenarios contrafactuales, la reducción del Gini bajo aleatorización completa (6%) se atenúa a 3% al incluir restricciones etarias, geográficas y maritales. Sun, 01 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/190917 2026-02-01T00:00:00Z Este trabajo documenta el grado y la evolución del emparejamiento selectivo (ES) educativo en 21 países de América Latina y el Caribe para cohortes nacidas entre 1915 y 1985, utilizando microdatos censales. Para estudiar tendencias en un contexto de expansión educativa y cambios en las distribuciones marginales por género, se evalúan indicadores de ES existentes y se propone el Indicador Cuantílico Educativo Local (ICEL), definido como la razón entre la probabilidad observada de emparejamiento dentro de un mismo cuantil educativo y la probabilidad esperada bajo independencia estadística. Se presentan dos extensiones: un indicador global que incorpora en la medición la selección hacia la formación de pareja y un indicador geográfico que integra heterogeneidad territorial en capital educativo y patrones de emparejamiento en mercados matrimoniales locales. De acuerdo con los datos de los últimos censos disponibles de cada país, la probabilidad de emparejarse con una persona del mismo quintil educativo es, en promedio, 2.3 veces la que surgiría bajo emparejamiento aleatorio, y presenta una mayor intensidad en los extremos de la distribución (Q1 en torno a 2.5; Q5 en torno a 3). Entre el primer y el último registro por país, el ICEL disminuye en 13 de 21 casos. Simulaciones para México muestran que restricciones etarias y geográficas explican una fracción sustantiva del emparejamiento observado y que, en escenarios contrafactuales, la reducción del Gini bajo aleatorización completa (6%) se atenúa a 3% al incluir restricciones etarias, geográficas y maritales. http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/190092 Documento de trabajo Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS; no. 365 This paper presents comprehensive evidence on intergenerational mobility in Mozambique— the country with the lowest documented level of mobility worldwide—and investigates its relationship with child labor. Using survey data that includes a module on non co-resident adult children, we document a strong link between children’s educational attainment and parental education and household wealth. Interestingly, our findings suggest that child labor perpetuates intergenerational inequality, not merely as a response to income shocks, but mainly due to labor market structures—particularly the complementarity between parental and child labor and the substantial opportunity costs associated with schooling. These findings underscore the need for targeted policies that decouple children’s labor market prospects from those of their parents and enhance awareness of the long-term returns to education. Sun, 01 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar:80/handle/10915/190092 2026-02-01T00:00:00Z This paper presents comprehensive evidence on intergenerational mobility in Mozambique— the country with the lowest documented level of mobility worldwide—and investigates its relationship with child labor. Using survey data that includes a module on non co-resident adult children, we document a strong link between children’s educational attainment and parental education and household wealth. Interestingly, our findings suggest that child labor perpetuates intergenerational inequality, not merely as a response to income shocks, but mainly due to labor market structures—particularly the complementarity between parental and child labor and the substantial opportunity costs associated with schooling. These findings underscore the need for targeted policies that decouple children’s labor market prospects from those of their parents and enhance awareness of the long-term returns to education.