A new momentum for a Greater Central Asia? Growing regional interdependence within Post-Soviet Central Asia and its interactions with Afghanistan and Mongolia

Abstract

Recent developments in Central Asia, including the signing of the historic Khujand Treaty between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in March 2025 to resolve longstanding border disputes and the intensification of diplomatic and economic ties with Afghanistan and Mongolia, particularly in transportation and logistics, reflect a new momentum of regionalism and pragmatic interdependence. Using Frederick Starr’s theoretical framework of "Greater Central Asia,” this article examines the evolving dynamics of intra-regional rapprochement within Post-Central Asia, comprised of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and its growing yet still modest economic ties with Afghanistan and Mongolia. It argues that an economic necessity to diversify transit routes and pragmatism due to the current Afghan government’s openness towards receiving foreign investment to rebuild the country has contributed to a visibly increased level of regional cooperation. However, improving connectivity in Greater Central Asia has been also partially driven by the influence of external powers, therefore a comprehensive further analysis is needed to disaggregate its impact on the development of intra-regional ties.