The road to 2020 targets and the learnings from the emblematic South American plant genus <i>Nassauvia</i> (Asteraceae)

Abstract

The elaboration of a comprehensive database about the distribution of the South American genus <i>Nassauvia</i> has allowed investigate its conservation biogeography. The combined use of historical (Dispersal Vicariance Analysis) and ecological (UPGMA) biogeographical approaches has led to detecting past, present and future critical areas in the evolution and persistence of the genus. According to the size of distribution areas, number of locations, environmental niche models, and predicted shifts of these spatial characteristics following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts for the next decade, it has been possible to award the level of global and national risk for all species of the genus and assign their corresponding IUCN categories. Severe gaps in legal and in situ conservation policies have been detected within the region, making it urgent the adoption of measures aimed at preventing the extinction of the most endangered species. We identify a future dramatic loss of <i>Nassauvia</i> species in the Andes and conversely a species increase in Patagonia. Patagonia has emerged as the cradle of the genus and could be its refuge in the future according the predictions targeted by climate change.