Development and Evaluation of a Leaf Disease Damage Extension in Cropsim-CERES Wheat

Abstract

Developing disease models to simulate and analyse yield losses for various pathogens is a challenge for the crop modelling community. In this study, we developed and tested a simple method to simulate septoria tritici blotch (STB) in the Cropsim-CERES Wheat model studying the impacts of damage on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield. A model extension was developed by adding a pest damage module to the existing wheat model. The module simulates the impact of daily damage on photosynthesis and leaf area index. The approach was tested on a two-year dataset from Argentina with different wheat cultivars. The accuracy of the simulated yield and leaf area index (LAI) was improved to a great extent. The Root mean squared error (RMSE) values for yield (1144 kg ha⁻¹) and LAI (1.19 m2 m⁻²) were reduced by half (499 kg ha⁻¹) for yield and LAI (0.69 m² m⁻²). In addition, a sensitivity analysis of different disease progress curves on leaf area index and yield was performed using a dataset from Germany. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the ability of the model to reduce yield accurately in an exponential relationship with increasing infection levels (0–70%). The extended model is suitable for site specific simulations, coupled with for example, available remote sensing data on STB infection.